Main contract awards in UK housing collapsed 47% year-on-year in September 2025.
Not a dip. A collapse.
The Construction News data shows systemic failure across every stage of development. Project starts dropped 7%. Planning approvals down 39%. The entire pipeline is breaking.
The Planning Bottleneck
Q2 2025 saw 44,520 new homes approved in England. That’s the lowest quarterly figure since 2012, down 17% from the previous year.
Today’s planning approvals become tomorrow’s project starts. Tomorrow’s starts become next year’s completions.
The pipeline empties.
Completions Tell the Real Story
Q1 2025 hit the lowest 12-month completions in eight years. Just 204,000 homes completed, down 9% year-on-year.
Four consecutive quarters of decline.
Meanwhile, the government’s housing need calculation sits at 367,000 homes per year. Only 225,000 homes gained full planning consent in the year to March 2025. A 39% shortfall between approvals and targets.
The gap widens.
What This Means for Q4 and Beyond
September’s data signals fourth-quarter performance. Planning approvals down 39% means reduced project starts 6-12 months out. Contract awards down 47% means developers are pulling back.
The drivers? Higher borrowing costs, tighter lending standards, and weakened buyer demand have created a perfect storm. Developers can’t secure financing. Buyers can’t afford mortgages. Local authorities slow approvals.
Fewer approvals lead to fewer starts. Fewer starts mean reduced contractor activity. Reduced activity means workforce cuts and capacity loss.
Extended contraction ahead.
For investors, this signals risk across the construction supply chain. For developers, it means project delays and canceled pipelines. For the broader economy, housing construction has historically led recessions by 6-12 months.
September’s numbers aren’t just about housing. They’re about what comes next.