I’ve been tracking Northern Ireland’s construction data, and the numbers from 2025 paint a picture most people aren’t talking about.
Project starts dropped 17% in 2025. That’s significant. But here’s what matters more: the pattern emerging for 2026 and 2027.
The Recovery Won’t Look Like You Think
Construction Information Services forecasts 2% growth in 2026, accelerating to 10% in 2027. That sounds promising until you realize we’ll still be behind 2024 levels.
This isn’t a V-shaped recovery. It’s a slow climb back from a steep drop.
The sectors driving this recovery reveal something about where the market sees opportunity.
Private Housing Is Carrying the Load
Private housing construction will grow 39% in 2026 and another 18% in 2027, according to the latest projections. That’s after just 3% growth in 2025.
This surge positions residential construction as the primary recovery engine. But there’s a constraint most forecasts gloss over: water infrastructure limitations are already restricting private housing development in key areas.
You can’t build houses without water systems that work.
The Office Paradox
Office construction grew 42% in 2025 while other sectors contracted. That seems counterintuitive in an era of remote work.
Dave Thompson, CIS vice-president for the UK and Ireland, explains it: hybrid working policies are driving demand for Grade A facilities. Companies want smaller footprints in better buildings.
They’re trading quantity for quality. The office sector isn’t expanding—it’s upgrading.
Where Government Money Goes
The Northern Ireland budget allocated £270 million for education and £933 million for infrastructure. This £1.2 billion represents critical counter-cyclical investment during economic uncertainty.
Community and amenity work surged 101% in 2025, with 70% growth projected for 2026. That’s crisis-driven reprioritization of social infrastructure.
When private investment retreats, public capital steps in. But this creates dependency on political decisions and fiscal constraints that can shift quickly.
The Sectors Still Struggling
Industrial project starts will fall 57% in 2025 and 15% in 2026 before recovering slightly in 2027. Retail starts drop 17% in 2025 and 19% in 2026.
This isn’t cyclical. This is structural.
These prolonged declines reflect fundamental economic restructuring beyond temporary market conditions. The industrial and retail construction weakness signals deeper shifts in how Northern Ireland’s economy operates.
What This Means for Planning Now
Thompson says “the fundamentals for recovery are in place.” I’d add a qualifier: recovery is in place for specific sectors with specific drivers.
If you’re betting on broad-based construction growth returning to pre-2025 levels by 2027, you’re reading the data wrong.
The recovery will be uneven. Residential and office will lead. Industrial and retail will lag. Government investment will fill gaps but create dependencies.
The construction sector isn’t bouncing back. It’s restructuring while it recovers.
That’s the forecast most reports won’t give you.